With the 152nd Kentucky Derby just days away, the spotlight at Churchill Downs is focused on one question: Can the favorite finally win?
Every year, experts and bettors pick one horse as the “favorite,” the horse most likely to win. But lately, being the favorite has been a recipe for disaster.
Not since Justify galloped through the Louisville mud in 2018 has the post-time favorite managed to cross the finish line first. In the seven years since, the “best” horse on paper has lost every single time.
This year, the horse tasked with breaking the spell is Renegade.
Renegade is a fast, talented colt trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, who has already won the Derby twice, and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. Thanks to his undefeated season and championship family tree, bettors have made Renegade the 4-1 morning-line favorite. He proved he’s the horse to beat with explosive, come-from-behind wins at the Arkansas Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes.
But Renegade is already facing an uphill battle. During the random drawing for starting spots, he got Post No. 1, the spot closest to the inside fence. It is widely considered the hardest place to start because 19 other horses will be trying to squeeze toward the inside as soon as the race begins. History is not on his side; before Mystik Dan’s victory in 2024 from post 1, no horse has won the Derby from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986.
The “Favorite Curse” has become more than just track-side superstition. In 2022, the favorite Epicenter was caught at the wire by Rich Strike, an 80-1 longshot who delivered the second-biggest upset in race history. Two years later, the top-rated Fierceness faded to 15th place while Mystik Dan claimed the roses. The streak reached seven years just last spring, when the favorite, Journalism, finished second behind the underdog Sovereignty.
If Renegade gets trapped by the “curse” or the “rail,” several other top horses are ready to pounce. Among them is Commandment, Renegade’s half-brother. Trained by Brad Cox, Commandment has shown the kind of consistent stamina needed for the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance. Other threats include Further Ado, coming off a victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, and Chief Wallabee, as trainer Bill Mott looks for back-to-back Derby titles after winning with Sovereignty last year.
As of Wednesday, the field has already seen its first shakeup. Silent Tactic was scratched from the race, allowing Great White to move into the 20th spot as a 50-1 underdog. Whether Renegade breaks the streak or another underdog makes history, nothing is guaranteed once the field hits the first turn.
